Race Predictor Skyrocketed Time, Not Sure Why - Slower than a time I did this week

Hi all, my Garmin race predictor had been consistently going quicker as I have been productively training after some time off. My PB is around 21:30, and I haven't tested in a while, but have been consistently running. It was predicting a race time of 21:20, which I thought may be slightly optimistic but nothing too crazy.

Then, this week it seemingly randomly skyrocketed from 21:20 to 25:00. As a result, I decided I would run a 5k this week at around 90% effort to see if the race estimator was out to lunch. I ran it in 22:20, and the watch readjusted down to an estimated race prediction of 22:40.

I wake up the next day, and it has readjusted to 25:00.

What on earth could be causing this??????? How is my 100% race estimator time slower than a 90% effort time that I did this week? And all this while being in the productive training zone. Vo2 max has gone up in the past 3 months from 47 to 49.