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Race Predictor Skyrocketed Time, Not Sure Why - Slower than a time I did this week

8692339
9 months ago

Hi all, my Garmin race predictor had been consistently going quicker as I have been productively training after some time off. My PB is around 21:30, and I haven't tested in a while, but have been consistently running. It was predicting a race time of 21:20, which I thought may be slightly optimistic but nothing too crazy.

Then, this week it seemingly randomly skyrocketed from 21:20 to 25:00. As a result, I decided I would run a 5k this week at around 90% effort to see if the race estimator was out to lunch. I ran it in 22:20, and the watch readjusted down to an estimated race prediction of 22:40.

I wake up the next day, and it has readjusted to 25:00.

What on earth could be causing this??????? How is my 100% race estimator time slower than a 90% effort time that I did this week? And all this while being in the productive training zone. Vo2 max has gone up in the past 3 months from 47 to 49.

  • 0 9 months ago

    In the winter time, my predicted time is almost 10 minutes too high. I think the reason is that my running sessions include warm up and stretching, which gives me an average pace close to walking pace.

  • 0 9 months ago in reply to ovekvam

    I am just confused as I haven't really changed my training in any way recently. I went for a boring 8k zone 2-3 run and it skyrocketed!

  • 0 9 months ago in reply to 8692339

    Maybe you got the new 20.26 firmware (I did), which has improved algorithms for calculating predicted race time.

  • 0 9 months ago in reply to ovekvam

    I will check. I am just confused as this estimate seems very bizarre. All of my race estimators went through the roof - for example, my 10k went from 47:00 to 52:30, my PR is 47:30, and have run 49:00 at a 7/10 effort in the past 2 months. 

    After my run yesterday, my 10k went back to around 48:30, which is a good guess, only for me to wake up and see it has moved back to 51:45 overnight. 

    Very weird!!!!!!!!!!!

  • +1 9 months ago

    Well, two days after I posted this, my estimates all returned back to normal times. Zero clue what caused this issue but it only lasted a couple days. Resolved, I guess.