Vo2 max too low - Race predictions way off

Hi all.

I am a bit frustrated on how my Fenix 6 pro calculates my Vo2 max. It seems my slower runs or recovery runs (when I’m tired)  affects the vo2 max and lowers it too much and then when I perform well in race tempo vo2 max is lagging behind. 

As an example, currently my vo2max on the watch is 53 and the race prediction for 10K says 42.26 and 5K 19.58. Four days ago I did 5K in 18.30 and yesterday I did 10K in 39.52. Vo 2 max still gave me 53 after yesterday’s PB. 

Clearly I am outperforming the race predictions by far and I’ve heard those are just 1 to 1 mapped to the vo2 max, so the watch and algorithm is completely off. 

I tried setting the vo2max manually in Garmin Connect but doesn’t seem to do anything? 

I mean this is not the end of the world but again I would like stats and data to be accurate and it’s quite silly to be honest that the clock says 42.26 when I just a day ago did sub 40. I mean cmon, how hard can it be?! 

Also shouldn’t the algorithm be smart enough to understand that if I stop a 5K race and let’s say end up in vo2max 54, and then I start a new activity to walk / lightly jog the last kms back to my flat, the watch instantly downgrades my vo2max to 53 again. This is just so LOL, how can it not just understand this scenario? 

Anyone who knows how I can get the vo2max to be accurate again or how to manually set it? 

Anyone from Garmin who reads this, please give me an explanation what I should do here to get this more accurate, thanks! 

FYI I am pairing my watch with the HRM Pro chest strap. 

Best regards, Oskar

  • Use Trail Run, or a copy of it (w/ VO2 Max turned off), whenever you do a leisurely walk/jog, if you don't want them to impact your VO2.

    You can't manually set your VO2 max.

    Race predictor does not take into account any actual 5k/10k/etc times you've recorded, it's based purely on VO2 max only. So it would be rare for it to exactly match up with your actual 5k/10k times, it's only meant to provide a rough approximation for people who don't run those distances often.

  • Thanks for your reply. Can I copy the normal run activity and switch off vo2max on that one or is vo2max switched off by default on the trail run activity? I guess I could use trail in that case but worries other metrics will be lost then and also integration to Strava and Strava statistics be messed up? 

    I get your point that race prediction is just a rough estimate but if it’s based on vo2max and I clearly outperforms my stated vo2max, shouldn’t the watch just re-update the vo2max when I go and run these times not only one but two activities in a row? Why say 53 if it’s rather 55 or 56? Did it think I cheated or someone else borrowed my watch? 

  • VO2 is always on in the Run activity, but with the Trail Run activity it can be turned on or off in the activity setting.

    It won't mess up your other metrics or your strava or anything - it is identical to the Run activity, just with the option to turn VO2 Max off. You could make a copy of it and rename it "Casual Run" or "Run without VO2" or something like that

  • How are your HR zones configured? Automatically or manually?

    Can you share both the HR graph from the 5K trial along with the HR zones info? Also is your age and weight.

    All these should be taken into account. I cannot believe that someone that does sub19 5K has anything lower than 60 V02max.

    Also, when did you start measuring your vo2max?

  • Hi. Sure, please find attached the HR during that activity as well as pulse zones. Had to stop and fix the shoe lace midway hence the HR dropped to 160 for a quick moment. Weight 86kg age 32. 

    Started to measure vo2max like a year ago and I’ve peaked at 56 but currently I am in my Best shape so should really be higher than 53 now. Not sure if me getting a chest strap about 2 weeks ago can affect anything but I’ve been around 53-54 since then. 

  • A chest strap gives more accurate results, especially at higher heart rates, so it's possible a strap is affecting your VO2Max, yes.

    If anything though, it'll be more accurate than it was, even if it's annoying that the number is now lower.

  • This is great, I shall start using this for slower runs / recovery runs or just when you are running let’s say in bad conditions when you’ve slept really bad or so. Then leave the vo2max runs for when you are well rested and when the circumstances are good (for example here in Sweden it’s been -10 and icy roads which kind of affects the level on energy you have to burn to get forward). Thanks a lot!! 

  • What's the difference what is his HR zones. He beat the time for VOmax 53 and watch should reflect that in VOmax perdiction. Otherwise this VOmax value is Pointless. 

  • To the best of my knowledge, race predictions are based on statistics from runners with known (lab tested) VO2max. So the times given are in comparison with these. A runner with a VO2max of 53 is expected to run 5 or 10 km in a certain time. 

    If your running technique and/or your capacity to run close to your max is better than average, your race times will be better than the model. I.e. faster than the average runner, but still at the same VO2max. Swedish marathon runner and longtime record holder Kjell Erik Stahl was known to run very close to his max capacity and with a very efficient running technique. With a VO2max just below 70 he outran runners with a higher VO2max.

  • It could be your max HR is too low, try increasing your max by five beats. Basically you can push yourself more than your watch thinks. 

    My 5&10K times are very similar but my VO2 is 56 and can go up 57 with heavy training/after a hard effort,10K race etc. 

    By the way what score did you get after those races? Should be at least 4.0?

    Race prediction takes into account your training for at least the last 4 weeks, probably last 4-8 or 12 weeks. It doesn’t take into account races. I’m sure in the future it will.