Race predictor lowers the prediction every time a day after training

How long is your daily run? If you maintain the same pace, but the HR goes higher, the prediction will be worse.

It's about 40-60 min.

The prediction after each run is better, but the next morning I wake up and  it's worse. I run 6 times a week, so almost every morning before the run the prediction is worse than the yesterday evening, and on the evening after the run the prediction is better. Next day the cycle repeats, so the prediction has been pretty much the same for a month now, but cycling evening/morning between better/worse. And the month before it wasn't that way. It happened just like that overnight without any dramatic change in the run schedule. If I didn't run a day before then the prediction remains the same.

Do you normally get a decent amount of deep sleep?

It could be a reason, I sleep a little less these days, but how does the watch know about it? I take it off a few hours before going sleep  and wear it on after I wake up. I'll try this week to do only zone1 trainings and see how this changed. 

Has your issue been resolved? 

I seem to have a similar "problem". My predictions are constantly getting more and more optimistic, but when I go for a 5k race I'm like 2-3 minutes slower than the estimate. But the predictions keep improving anyway.

Hi weuek, 

Not really, I just no longer treat these predictions seriously. Currently they go up and down by 10-15 sec/km depending on what training I had. If I go out for Easy run in a forest terrain then the predictions go down. If I make some fast intervals on track mixed with slow recover then the predictions also go down, but when I go out for a tempo run on a paved surfaces then predictions go up. I don't think they reflect fitness anymore, just some average from the last couple of runs and yes, they still go up or down overnight depending on nothing specific. Which is another clue that this is some kind of moving average.