Mine is very accurate... Strange but true. Did a half marathon on sat and the predition was 1:33'00'' (ish) and because aof the wind and rain finish on 1:35'40''.
Yes, it's obviously a well known issue. But for me the race predictor times aren't to slow, rather they are much to fast.
The algorithmn doesn't use your running times or PB directly. Rather it uses VO2max for prediction of the race times.
Here is an iteresting article about this
Hello Subra, thanks for your answer :-)
There is difference between the fenix6 and older watches, on the fenix6 it is far to slow on the older watches a bit to fast.
I read the article you attached, when I look at table in that article I should have a prediction of 16:47 on a 5K with a VO2max off 61 and not 17:57.
The strange thing is, garmin has made changes to determine VO2max and the predictor times in the Fenix6
There is difference between the fenix6 and older watches, on the fenix6 it is far to slow on the older watches a bit to fast.
It's strange that different watches calculate different predicted race times. Then also the Garmin Physio TrueUp function shows wrong values.
By definition VO2max is the maximum oxygen consumption and this can only exactly be measured by a spiro-ergonomic lab test. This analyses the inhaleted and exhaleted O2 at max workout.
Garmin/Firstbeat instead use a submax workout and extrapolates the speed to HRmax, as described in figure 2 of this paper.
https://assets.firstbeat.com/firstbeat/uploads/2017/06/white_paper_VO2max_30.6.2017.pdf
I wouldn't call this VO2max, since there is no measurement of O2. It's simply a rough approximation. For the race time predictions tables from elite athletes are used. But usually also elite athletes that run at the same pace have different VO2max.
From my POV Garmin measures something like Jack Daniels VDOT, which takes also into account the running economy. But VO2max isn't equal VDOT and if you look at table 4 there is a VDOT table from Jack Daniels, which is denoted "Race time prediction based on VO2max", which is clearly wrong.
I read the article you attached, when I look at table in that article I should have a prediction of 16:47 on a 5K with a VO2max off 61 and not 17:57.
5k in 16:47 gives a VDOT = 61.1 as you can see here
Since VDOT is always smaller than VO2max Garmin has something interchanged. This may be reason for the differences.
And using Coopers formula for VO2max
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VO2_max#Cooper_test
5k in 16:47 corresponds to 5000m/1007s*720s=3575m in 12min
VO2max =(distance in 12min - 504.9)/44.73=(3575m-504,9)/44.73=68.6
The last time I tested my VO2max it was 68 (it is a bit lower now I think, around the 65 I think).
Note the difference
VDOT = 61.1
VO2max = 68.6