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Race Predictor way off

scotthunter2
over 5 years ago

Since updating to new firmware I have noticed that the Race Predictor is way off. It's saying my 5k time is 19:19 when I can easily do sub 19, 10k: 41:04 when I recently ran 39:35, half mara 1:35 when I have run 1:23. It also says my VO2 Max estimate is 58. But with older versions of the firmware, when I had a VO2 Max of 58 it was saying my race predictor times were way faster than realistic estimates. Anyone know what's going on? I always run with a HRM-Run so my HR data is pretty accurate.

  • 0 over 5 years ago

    It's unlikely that this is related to the new firmware, even if you started noticing it around the time that you got a firmware update. Pretty sure that's a coincidence.

    Race predictor doesn't account for how fast you've actually run a 5k or a marathon. Those prediction times aren't really that far off, considering it's only basing it on your estimated fitness (mostly VO2 max, but also including other factors). Obviously, race prediction times will never be spot on - it doesn't account for things like pushing yourself harder during a race than you do during training, fuelling your body differently on race day, etc. Honestly, if you're upset that your 10k time estimate is off by 90 seconds then your expectations are a little unrealistic. There are so many variables that go into race times, that the fact that it's often accurate to within +/- 10% is actually pretty impressive. An argument could be made, I suppose, that when you run a faster race than it predicted, it should adjust future estimates accordingly - but as of now, this Firstbeat metric doesn't do that. I think it's mostly designed for people who are training to do a race that they haven't done recently (or ever), not for people who regularly run those races and already know what times to expect.

    Understanding Race Predictor

    Race Predictor projects an ideal race time for different distances, such as 5K, 10K, half and full marathon. This calculation can be accessed from a watch's performance widget.

    The watch will use the VO2 max. estimate and your training history to provide a target race time. The watch analyzes several weeks of your training data to refine the race time estimates.

    The projections may seem inaccurate at first.  The watch will require a few runs to accurately provide an ideal prediction. These times are just predictions and do not factor in variables including weather, course difficulty or training regimen.

  • 0 over 2 years ago

     i have a fenix 6 for 1.5 years now, in the pandemic i became slower. last september i did my first race in two years. my goal was 1:35, the race predictor gave me 1:38, i finished in 1:34. In 8 weeks i Will try to improve my pb from 1:30:56 to 1:29. Even after the race in september the predictor says 1:38. Bottom Line: do not rely on the garmin race predictor,but rely on your paces you can run in your training. I always use Jack Daniels and his race predictions are very spot on