Today I did a evenly paced "easy" trail run, and I wanted to show how Pace-Pro would recommend me to pace this effort, and contrast it with reality (how does a real evenly paced effort look like).
The run:
17km, 1360m elevation gain, 650m elevation loss. Mix of road, forest roads and trails. Total time 2h46min.
Here are the kilometer splits as pace-pro suggests, as happened in reality, and also as a different tool called plot-a-route suggests. Each pacing strategy was given the "correct" goal time of 2h46min.
As you can see, plot-a-route is on average 14% wrong on the kilometer splits, while pace-pro is 25% wrong on average. This is a huge difference, and we can see if we look at the details, that the problem is especially bad when the hills are steep, as for kilometer 7, where the Pace-Pro suggests a 13min/km, reality was a 20.5min/km, and plot-a-route gave 19min/km. This is 56% error from pace pro!
Plot-a-route is not using rocket-science for this much better prediction, they simply calculate a "flat equivalent" distance using:
Every year millions of people use a Garmin watch to pace their trail races - could we put in the minimal effort to make Pace-Pro remotely possible when it goes up-hill?
See also this post, now 1 year old, showing the discrepancies when using pace-pro to predict uphill performance: