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Race Prediction "Inaccurate"

Hi,

On Sunday I had a marathon Garmin showed me 2:40:16 prediction. I did 2:37:49 official time and 2:36:37 GPS). but Garmin now showing my 2:40:09. is it expected?

0 S.M.R. over 2 years ago

Yes , it calculates based on data like HR , training effort etc not an actual race time - as far as I know. Those times are quite close TBH. Congrats on the time also!

0 gmaccauley over 2 years ago

I did 3:12 on Sunday and watch before and after it is still 3:23.

HR was 161 wearing a hrm run. I put it down to do with the hr zones bug on watch software

0 S.M.R. over 2 years ago

Look at this thread

https://forums.garmin.com/sports-fitness/running-multisport/f/forerunner-955-series/301307/garmin-race-time-prediction/1476911#1476911

In particular this comment:

The race prediction times looks at your training over the past few weeks, so one run where you've exceeded the time might not have an impact.

"The watch will use the VO2 max. estimate and your training history to provide a target race time. The watch analyzes several weeks of your training data to refine the race time estimates.

The projections may seem inaccurate at first. The watch will require a few runs to accurately provide an ideal prediction. These times are just predictions and do not factor in variables including weather, course difficulty or training regimen."

How Does the Race Predictor Feature Work on My Watch? | Garmin Support

0 gmaccauley over 2 years ago in reply to S.M.R.

It was right and then one day after an update it dropped about 15 minutes for marathon and over a minute for 5km. Never changed since. I did a half 2 months ago and was 4 minutes faster than prediction. No change. The watch is full of bugs. You can’t seem to set avg alert pace anymore

0 Miky over 2 years ago

Mine is quite accurate

Prediction 1.28 for HM, did 1.29.46

Prediction 39.45 for 10km, I feel I'm near 41.00

0 GarminMarathoner over 2 years ago

that's not even so bad... mine shows in the 2:50s and now 3:00s despite being a 2:40 flat runner with it showing 2:5x before and after.

I've also run like 10 halfs around 1:19 (or faster - to 1:15 since getting the watch) - like training pace for marathon or half races, yet it keeps in the 1:21-1:24 range.