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Garmin Race time prediction

rfripp5
over 2 years ago

I have noticed on the 955 the race time predictor is far closer to that of my old 935. That said, I would still like to ask a question.

The other day I ran a 5k in 17:39, and yet my 5k race time predictor is currently showing as 18:05. I also noticed it does appear to fluctuate a little day-to-day, but today it is saying my training readiness is 88. It hasn't got HRV status yet (I've only had the watch for 8 night's sleeps). Why is it not suggesting I can at least run under 18?

Many thanks.

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    I dont understand how this works too. Any of my training runs doesnt affect my predicted race times much, only couple of seconds. But yesterday evening i made random 7km walk and that boosted all my predicted race times like 2-3 minutes. 

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    I agree, my Fenix 6 had me a bit too fast, then the 955 has me sooooo slow on the predictions. I ran 5K in less than 19:00 during a 6 mile run, not a race, prediciton still has me at 21:00. Does not make sense.

  • 0 over 2 years ago in reply to Kalmer

    It is strange. Perhaps it'll get a bit more accurate in time. 

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    My 955 thinks I can run a 50 mile ultra in 4 hours next week....

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    Mine says 12 hrs 26 minutes for a 100 miler in a few weeks. I’ll be pushing just to get under 25 hrs. I bet my Body Battery will be on +1 for the last 50 miles. 

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    The race prediction times looks at your training over the past few weeks, so one run where you've exceeded the time might not have an impact.

    "The watch will use the VO2 max. estimate and your training history to provide a target race time. The watch analyzes several weeks of your training data to refine the race time estimates.

    The projections may seem inaccurate at first.  The watch will require a few runs to accurately provide an ideal prediction. These times are just predictions and do not factor in variables including weather, course difficulty or training regimen."

    How Does the Race Predictor Feature Work on My Watch? | Garmin Support

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    My race predictions had been going down nicely with the adaptive training plan and then just after the latest update they got knocked up by 1' for 5k, 1.5' for 10k, 2' for HM and 3+ minutes for an M. With no change to VO2Max. I guess I'll have to chalk that up to another "untested" change in the latest release !

  • 0 over 2 years ago in reply to webvan

    Yes the 12.27 had a change log note relating to race time predictions, mine also all moved around (mostly up) and at least the 5k is closer to reality now than what it was before

  • 0 over 2 years ago in reply to S.M.R.

    Thanks, I'd missed that. Taking another look I suppose they're in the ballpark, especially the 5k and 10k, probably a bit pessimistic for an HM and Marathon. You have to wonder why they would make such "large" adjustments after years of experience though...

    I wish there was a way to track predictions other than on a tiny graph too.

  • 0 over 2 years ago in reply to webvan

    Try reports section on the Garmin Connect web site maybe