Race prediction after a parkrun

1246938 1 month ago

Hi, I'd like to know if it's normal that Garmin's prediction for my 5k time has changed by 8 seconds (21:09 to 21:01). I ran my first parkrun today in 19:29 (Garmin recorded 4.96km and didn't initially set a record). I manually added a training session, setting the distance as 5km and the time as 19:29. After this change, I have new records on my profile, but my predicted 5k time is 21:01. Is this normal? Maybe Garmin is taking into account all my training, not just the first race, and there's nothing I can do about it?

https://imgur.com/a/t5Pz1Aj

1st photo - recorded parkrun

2nd photo - my predictions (after I manally added 5k race with 19:29 time)

3rd photo - my records updated but predictions don't.

0 Jacquers 25 days ago

Did you accept the records?

0 1437606 24 days ago

Quote from RP help...

"Race Predictor uses your training history and VO₂ Max to predict your performance in popular race distances.

As you record outdoor runs with your Garmin device, you will begin to receive predictions for 5K, 10K, half marathon and marathon race distances. Your watch analyzes several weeks of training data to refine the estimates. The more runs you track, the more accurate the predictions will become. The predictions are based on ideal conditions and do not factor in weather, course difficulty and other variables."

So... one race or training (even with PR) may not be enough to significant change race prediction.

If you haven't had regular quality trainings in the last several weeks, race predictor will be useless.