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Race predictor suddenly improved a lot

ovekvam
over 2 years ago

I have had a very stable and terribly pessimistic race prediction from my watch for months. While I can run a 5K in around 22 minutes (personal best is sub 20), it thinks my race prediction should be around 31 minutes. I have shown it many times that I can run significantly faster than that, but the prediction have persisted. That is, until yesterday! 

Suddenly the prediction made a huge jump in the right direction. I did nothing special that day. The only thing I can think of, is that it is my first outdoor interval training done after my guided lactate threshold test, so I guess my running power zones have been changed lately. And for the first time, the watch and Garmin Connect are both showing time in power zone 5!

I am still running firmware 14.20.

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    Still sucks for me.

    V02max slightly optimistically predicts I can run a 42km in 3:58:07, while runalyze.com more realistically predicts 4h15. I have run a 4h30 marathon a couple months ago, but my fitness has improved due to ultra marathon training, so I am okay with that prediction.

    Race predictor predicts thinks I can run the 91km comrades marathon (course uploaded with 898m ascent and 1545m descent) in 7:01:11.

    So the watch thinks I can run 5:39/km for a 42km but I will actually speed up to 4:38/km for a 91km?

  • 0 over 2 years ago in reply to Aslam

    Makes sense. Running a marathon should improve your fitness significantly, so after that you will run faster. :-)

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    After I ran a 5K in 22:40 minutes today, the race prediction did a new giant leap downwards, to 22:26. Seems like it is suddenly working just fine now. We are finally in the right ballpark.

  • 0 over 2 years ago in reply to ovekvam

    I can run a 90km with loads of elevation at a way faster pace than a 42km? How does that make sense?

  • 0 over 2 years ago in reply to Aslam

    It was a joke about you getting in better shape during the race, since it is so long.