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BUG 14.20: Race Prediction for Ultras

Aslam

My current predictions:

  • 5k v02max widget prediction - 22:50 (very accurate, my pb last year was 23:10)
  • 10k v02max widget prediction - 48:27 (very accurate as well, I did run sub 50 last year)
  • Half Marathon v02max widget prediction - 1:48:30 (a bit optimistic, I did run sub 2 in november)
  • Marathon v02max widget prediction - 3:56:16 (fairly optimistic, I did run sub 4h30 last month)
  • 90km Comrades Marathon race widget prediction - 7:00:33 (???)
My watch thinks I can run a 90k quicker than 2 42k's?
Realistically, I expect to finish sub 12. My goal is sub 11.
I have come across 255/955 users on Reddit who have similar absurd predictions for ultras, hence this post.
  • 0

    Are the race predictions based on VO2Max? 
    I am a bit confused about this, as my watch insists that my 5K race time should be higher than 31 minutes, while I have demonstrated for my watch that I can jog a 5K in 26 minutes at easy zone 2 pace. Garmin has even seen me do a sub 20 minute 5K race. It estimates my VO2Max to be 50. Isn't 31 minutes rather slow when you have a 50 VO2Max?

  • 0 in reply to ovekvam
    ovekvam said:
    Are the race predictions based on VO2Max? 

    Partly, I think.

    While it clearly seems to be the basis for race predictions, it also matters how much you run in your training and how your condition during that runs is.

    I could clearly see that in the last months: When I got the FR255, it estimated my VO2Max to be 53, later 54, now 53 again - so quite stable.
    The race predictions varied a lot during that time, for 5km starting with 22:30 going down to 20:00, now being at 20:30

    I never did really run that distance (or another race) during that time, but varied how much I ran and what type of runs.

  • 0 in reply to Grumpy from dawn till dusk

    When I recently jogged 5K in 26 minutes, the performance condition ended up at +8, but the watch did not make any corrections to VO2Max or my predicted race pace.

  • 0 in reply to Grumpy from dawn till dusk

    My v02max is also in the 53/54 range. 

  • 0 in reply to ovekvam

    Yes, it makes 0 sense. Even if it was only using v02max to make predictions, recent GPS activities in which you PB should push up your v02max score if it was inaccurate, which in turn should improve your race predictions.

    Also, the longer the distance, the slower the pace. It's crazy that that it predicts otherwise.

  • 0 in reply to Aslam

    Today I did a guided lactate threshold test. It says VO2Max 51, and threshold pace is 4:41. During the test, which included walking and slow jogging to warm up, I completed a 5K in 28 minutes. If I run at my threshold pace, a 5K would be 23:25. I am pretty sure I could run faster than threshold pace in a 5K race, but my watch still insists that my race prediction is over 31 minutes! :-)