VO2max and Race Prediction over-estimation

VO2max is calculated based on your pace against your heart rate. If the watch gets any of them inaccurate, then the VO2max calculation will be off as well.

I've always seen the race prediction madness. It has times I can only dream of in there.

Not exclusive to this device though, was same on all my Garmin.

The watch gives me a whopping VO2max of 58 and an equally impressive marathon prediction time of 2:49:00. That is obviously an overestimation, since I am more or less of a beginner, my trainings and a few races I did show that my real pace is about a 10K @ 4:30 and hopefully a marathon in 3:30:00.

Any idea why this overshooting and is there anyway I can force the watch to recalc my performance data?

Thanks.

It's funny as I've found the 645 to be more realistic than my previous 620. The 620 gave me that 58 number once with the same marathon prediction so I decided to try it & see what happened! As you might guess I blew up around the 30k mark :) The 645 moves between 53 & 54 for me which is looks to be reasonably accurate.

As far as I remember the prediction is what could be possible if you trained specifically for that event so who know maybe you could surprise yourself.

In my case it is pretty much overestimating. I run and bike regularly. I am nearly 50 with a VO2max of 47, but telling me to run a 10k in 46min for example is just funny. :-D

Yeah, most ppl find Garmin’s Vo2max/race predictor numbers to be inflated. I think the overall trends correlate with fitness (and other factors, like temperature), but the absolute numbers are way too optimistic.

Try subtracting 3 or 4 from your Garmin vo2max and looking up the equivalent race prediction here: https://cicerunner.wordpress.com/201...-from-vo2-max/

Or you could sync your Garmin account with the free site runalyze.com. It also estimates your vo2max from HR and pace, but it can correct that guess (and the equivalent race predictions) based on your actual race times. It also has another correction factor just for marathons, based on your weekly mileage, long run length and vo2max. For me, it predicts race times that are way closer to reality (and sometimes a bit slower than I actually ran).

VO2max is calculated based on your pace against your heart rate. If the watch gets any of them inaccurate, then the VO2max calculation will be off as well.

I use a chest strap which appear to give very clean results (as they look on GC graphs) and an Adidas footpod that is within 1% pace precission (measured regularily on a 400 m track.). So, I don't think I can get input data much better than this.

Try subtracting 3 or 4 from your Garmin vo2max ...

58-3=55. Even then it's stellar! :)

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So, the consensus is pretty much it's overestimating for everybody. What's the use of this, then...? :-\ And how can you trust the rest of Firstbeat stuff (TE, Recovery, Load etc.)?

So, the consensus is pretty much it's overestimating for everybody.

No. It's quite accurate for me. You made an assumption basing on very few votes in a forum topic about race predictor inaccuracy.

I get VO2max of 59 - pretty much the same as what I had a the professional performance diagnostic test (59.8)

Aged 49, 78kg, VO2max 52. All race predictions are within 5-10% of actual. No problems here.

VO2Max is spot on for me (56), same on my 645 as the result from my VO2Max at a lab 2 weeks ago. I'm using a Stryd footpod though for pace. When I wasn't using that, the Vo2max was off too.

But, the race estimation is about 15 minutes off (It shows 2:42 for me - PB is 2:57)