First event tomorrow. Half-marathon. Just curious. It reckons I can do a sub 2 hour (by about 20 seconds lol) but I think that's beyond me. Previous half-marathon (non event, just me on my own) was a year ago and 2:20 (recorded on Fitbit). Dare I hope...
Like most predicted race estimates - it is the best case prediction if you trained like a pro to semi-pro for that vo2 max. So if you trained and trained and trained....likely for multiple years and you were still maxed out at that vo2max level. You'd likely, if you are tough and enjoy pain, you could likely hit those times.
The problem is .... most people are far from 'Well Trained' and are not expert racers (race hard much of the year)...and most people fold when pain/effort levels get too high. Its a perfect storm of not fulfilling your full ability.
To get a better representation of your vo2 max try to maintain a long-even-hard-Tempo effort with preferably a heart rate strap on fairly flat terrain.
Using shorter race PR's and plugging into Mcmillan or Danials Vdot calculators are better race predictors in the near term IMO.
The Race Predictor is only going to be as accurate as the VO2Max is, which is only going to be as accurate as the HRMax you've set is. And as best as I can tell for the purposes of Garmin's VO2Max it's best to set your HRMax a little lower than what you might actually be able to get your HR up to and closer to where you would peak at the end of a hard run 5k or hill repeats.
I was getting VO2Max numbers in the 55-57 range when I had my HRMax set to 180 which I reached while wearing a chest strap at a track meet in 400m and 1 mile races on an 80F August evening. Once I changed it to 175 after holding a steady 169-170 for most of a 5k and peaking at 172 at the end it adjusted down to 49 for awhile before coming back and settling at 50 which puts the predicted time for a 5k to 10 seconds faster than what I did in that last race. the 10k prediction is in a reasonable range, HM is ambitious, and while I might be physiologically capable of doing the predicted marathon time my VO2Max will probably be higher by the time I get there. If I do get to that time it'll be a BQ-20 for me which would be great, but I don't see it happening. ;)
I can't neither run on flat, even Terrain nor can I (for the next couple of months) test myself for my real HR[SUB]max[/SUB]. Well, I'll just keep on running and see what comes.
Funny though, I only started to run again (after a forced on injury break of a couple of years) a couple of months ago. Last year, because of different health reasons, I didn't do much Sport. But in between, I did a lot of HIT/HIIT bodyweight Training and my VO[SUB]2[/SUB]Max has been at my very best then (way better then with running). But I could not have run 1k without collapsing *g*
Thanks all. Predictor was 1:59:11. I did it in 2:14:54. Was happy with that. First one and I didn't want to go mad so took it steady from the get go. It was the Southampton half and the Itchen bridge (twice) in the 19th km really knackered me lol. I enjoyed it all though, and that's the main thing :-)
Thanks all. Predictor was 1:59:11. I did it in 2:14:54. Was happy with that. First one and I didn't want to go mad so took it steady from the get go. It was the Southampton half and the Itchen bridge (twice) in the 19th km really knackered me lol. I enjoyed it all though, and that's the main thing :-)
I think Garmin race predictions don't work. The assumption of the VO2max is not consistent.
Example: My VO2max now is 57, the half marathon prediction is 1h22m53s and I just finished a 1h40m Half Marathon as best of this year.
I'm an experienced marathoner (sub 2h50m), three marathon des sables, I know about the topic.
The VO2max is not a consistent predictor, moreover it's not clear how the VO2max is calculated.
Some Machine Learning techniques could help avoiding these big mistakes
If you can run a sub 2h50m marathon then you should be able to hit the predicted half marathon time!
seriously though, the race predictor is ambitious. It's a look up table from the VO2Max. The table is linked from the 620 forum. If you take 3 points off your current score then the prediction should be closer
About How accurate is the race predictor? The race predictor is unrealistic if you’ve only started using the device. As your device gathers data on your metrics (be that running, cycling or whatever you do), the predictions get closer to a more realistic estimate. Be aware that you need to use it for months to get an improved accuracy.
Like most predicted race estimates - it is the best case prediction if you trained like a pro to semi-pro for that vo2 max. So if you trained and trained and trained....likely for multiple years and you were still maxed out at that vo2max level. You'd likely, if you are tough and enjoy pain, you could likely hit those times.
The problem is .... most people are far from 'Well Trained' and are not expert racers (race hard much of the year)...and most people fold when pain/effort levels get too high. Its a perfect storm of not fulfilling your full ability.
To get a better representation of your vo2 max try to maintain a long-even-hard-Tempo effort with preferably a heart rate strap on fairly flat terrain.
Using shorter race PR's and plugging into Mcmillan or Danials Vdot calculators are better race predictors in the near term IMO.
Along with long term use to improve accuracy of race predictions, an accurate VO2max level is essential!
