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Race Predictor Slower than Actual Times

Just run a 22:22 5k, yet race predictor is still showing 22:40, any ideas why this hasn't changed? It was a slow, muddy grass course so would expect to do 21:30 on a tarmac course. Last Weeks was 22:26 (without the Garmin).
  • race predictor depends on VO2Max. Sometimes VO2Max doesn't change until the day after a long run. Check tomorrow. If your VO2Max didnt change then look at the 5K and check if the heart rate was accurate, if there are spikes in it or your TE is 5.0 then it won't count.

    HTH

    CW
  • TE

    TE was 4.2, so fingers crossed something changes tonight. Only just started running last week after some years (about 30...).

    The HR was a little odd. It was 135 for the first 2.5k, then suddenly jumped to 160 for the second 2.5k, creeping to to 193 for the last 1k. It then rose to 198 briefly due to my sprint finish.

    Current VO2 max is 46 (on the Garmin), though my RHR is 38, which might be muddling things. Average was 93% of max for this run.

    If I do the calculation below (using RHR38 and MHR 198, gives me a VO2 max of 75.7 = which sounds great but is unlikely to be correct. I guess over the next few weeks the Garmin will give a fairer figure as more data goes through it and it starts to get a real feel.

    Uth-Sorenen-Overgaard-Pedersen estimation (VO2max = 15.3 x HRmax/HRrest)
  • Sounds like it discarded that for irregular HR am afraid.

    That formulae makes no sense as it does not have any component of performance in it. Anybody in any shape can have similar min and max HRs.
  • Discarded

    You're right, it seems to have discarded that run, as (after 48 hours) the Personal Records still show an earlier, slow training run as my "best 5k", which is a tad annoying.

    Oh well, just have to go for another run and see what happens. Chest strap on today.
  • Buccari

    You're right, it seems to have discarded that run, as (after 48 hours) the Personal Records still show an earlier, slow training run as my "best 5k", which is a tad annoying.

    Oh well, just have to go for another run and see what happens. Chest strap on today.


    Ok, just did a slow recovery 8k and the V02Max has improved to 47 and the 5k finish time to 22:11 - which all seems pretty accurate. Next race is in two weeks, so a sub 22 is something to aim for.
  • And how was the HR with the strap, did it make sense ? There is a new CIQ DF that can show the data of an external HR monitor while the FR235 also shows the OHR value : https://apps.garmin.com/en-US/apps/88ce4547-7d84-4289-b2c7-3e15ca00185f
  • HR

    HR seemed calmer with the strap, less jumpy and MHR was 174, which is more in line with existing runs where I've not been pushing it. Will give that app. a try later in the week.

    Thanks