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V02Max and Estimated Run Times

Former Member
Former Member
I've had this watch about a month now and done a dozen or so runs. V02 Max is currently 41, which is high as i'm overweight and quite unfit. Yesterday I ran a 10k race in 1:05 and my watch predicts I should be running 52:33. Is it that maybe the watch isn't taking my being overweight into account for the race estimate calculation?
  • Yes they are very aggressive - they are based on your vo2max only... which isn't the best indicator of ability in endurance events better for sprints (max oxygen use ability). I wish it looked at your miles per week and vo2max... or something. If you took a group of vo2max 50 runners.... you would get widely different race times. Due running economy(form/technique/efficiency), muscle strength, endurance, fast twitch/slow twitch....etc.

    Those are the 'if you trained like a pro' for a year or three... best case.

    plus the vo2max can be skewed if your HR max isn't set right, or if during a run the HR reading is wack. Like last night my wifes gave her a new vo2 max....but that is because her HR sensor was jacked and never got above 148 (~78%of max) on half mile intervals. In reality she was dieing... likely up near 93-95% at the end of them, wouldn't have raised her Vo2 max most likely.
  • Thanks for that NickMN.

    I did a series of 5km races in February (they were in the middle of a Half training plan so legs were tired) and heart rate was around 171 so I'll set the watch to zones based on 175 and see what happens

    Went for a 14km interval run (7 x 6 minutes) last night with the new 175 max heart rate. Results show:
    Zone 5 33%
    Zone 4 44%
    Zone 3 20%
    Zone 2 1%

    These zones seem about right for the effort I put in.

    VO2 Max is now 47. No idea really what this means but the number is increasing from 44 a few weeks ago.

    Race predictor now has me at:
    5km 22:11 (ha ha – best I have ever done is 24:19)
    10km 46:01 (ha ha – best I have ever done is 51:53)
    Half 1:41:57 (ha ha – best I’ve ever done is 1:56:11)
    Full 3:31:54 (Only done 1 full at 4:45:15 – got cramp at 31km)

    I am currently in training for a Full and there is no way I could reach any of those predictions – mainly because I wouldn’t get a chance for a decent taper. But that aside if I could taper and race prepare I reckon it would be unlikely I would get under 49:00 for a 10km race or 1:52:00 for a half. I'll be happy if I can do my Full in November at 4:30:00

    So race predictor is wildly optimistic.
  • I think it is actually the VO2 Max values that can be "wildy optimistic". The race predictions are just effectively lookups of the VO2 Max value.

    Here is a lookup table I remember we all helped to fill out
    https://cicerunner.wordpress.com/2014/07/11/garmin-fr620-race-times-from-vo2-max/

    Looking at that my races in last few years suggest 60 is about right but my 735 is saying 63 which fits with my 3 points too high theory!
  • I think it is actually the VO2 Max values that can be "wildy optimistic". The race predictions are just effectively lookups of the VO2 Max value.

    Here is a lookup table I remember we all helped to fill out
    https://cicerunner.wordpress.com/2014/07/11/garmin-fr620-race-times-from-vo2-max/

    Looking at that my races in last few years suggest 60 is about right but my 735 is saying 63 which fits with my 3 points too high theory!


    I think you may have it - the VO2 Max is being overstated. If I look at your table my race times (5km, 10km and Half) align very nicely to VO2Max 42. The Full is probably ambitious but if all conditions are right (training fitness, hills, temperatore, wind, dew point etc) I might just achieve that.

    If I look at the attached table a VO2Max of 42 puts me in the "Excellent" and rather than the garmin VO2 MAx of 47 which sees me in the "Superior" band - that I certainly am not. I'm asthmatic as well as old so there is no way I'm functioning at that level.

    So I think I have learnt that
    - Garmin overstates the VO2 Max by 5 - making it a useless indicator.
    - given the VO2 Max is off, the Race Time Predictor is also a useless indicator.

    Now I'm off to learn what else gets reported that relies on VO1Max as part of the equation.

  • One thing to keep in mind is that the Recovery Advisor and VO2 Max estimates are based on some very specific exercise apps (outdoor run and outdoor bike with a cadence sensor) and if you deviate from doing ONLY those activities you will find those estimates are mostly smoke.

    Yesterday I did 1 hour on an Elliptical Trainer with the resistance set to 10 out of 24. When I finished the Recovery Advisor recommended 72 hours of rest. After doing a a bit up upper body strength training I then got on the treadmill and did a mile at a 15 minute pace with the elevation set to 2.5%. When I got off the treadmill the recovery advisor stated I need to rest for 22 hours. That is a 50 hour drop in the recovery time in an actual time span of about 35 minutes. The reason for this is simple, on the Elliptical I am pushing hard enough at an elevated resistance to throw the "math" way out of whack. BTW in Field Testing my VO2 Max is between 44 and 46. For the past 3 weeks my 235 has been reporting it's 36 except for tonight when after doing 1.25 miles on the treadmill had it at 39.

    I'll also note that foot issues are the reason why I do so much work on an Elliptical. I've found that this particular machine can exercise the foot in such a way that the circulation is increased to speed healing but I have a bad habit of going out and beating my feet up as soon as they start feeling good. Those suffering from Plantar Faciitis, Metatarsalgia, or a strained Arch may want to consider using an Elliptical to help speed up the healing. Just be warned that you can overdo it on an Elliptical so remember MODERATION is the best approach when you are in a healing phase. BTW, I have issues with remembering this which is why I have foot problems.

    I'll also note that 220 rule for determining the maximum heart rate was produced by a renowned cardiologist "winging it" by his own admission. BTW, that is from my personal physician who attended a conference where this cardiologist admitted his formula was simply based on a hunch. This means that the TRUE maximum heart rate is an INDIVIDUAL STATISTIC and because of this it will vary from person to person. However it actually is a fairly good guide so you can use it as an aid in determining your actual maximum heart rate. Which is actually the maximum heart rate that you can sustain for 15 minutes without feeling over stressed. Note, your peak heart rate will be higher but due to the stress produced at this level you won't be able to sustain that rate for more than a couple of minutes at the most, after that spurt you'll see your heart rate and output level decline to a point at between 80 and 90% of your maximum.

    So, lessons learned from my own training and in consultation with my physician. First, you really shouldn't do long term training at your maximum. It is actually possible to train so hard that you can develop Exercise Induced Cardiomyopathy, which is an incurable condition of scaring in the heart tissue and an enlarged heart. Current thinking is that we should be training at somewhere between 60 and 80% of our maximum. One guide for determining the best level on an individual basis is to keep an eye on your resting heart rate. Because an increase of more than 5 points after an intense session is an indicator for Over Training. So, if you see your resting heart rate going up, you need to start backing off just a bit on intensity. Second, Recovery Days are NOT wimping out, they are actually needed so we can heal and build muscle tissue. So, develop a routine that includes intentional time off or days where our "workout" is a slow walk with the dog. Finally, very few of us will ever be Olympic level athletes, so accept that and simply set your goal as being the best that YOU can be.
  • I think it is actually the VO2 Max values that can be "wildy optimistic". The race predictions are just effectively lookups of the VO2 Max value.

    Here is a lookup table I remember we all helped to fill out
    https://cicerunner.wordpress.com/2014/07/11/garmin-fr620-race-times-from-vo2-max/

    Looking at that my races in last few years suggest 60 is about right but my 735 is saying 63 which fits with my 3 points too high theory!

    3 points too high looks like a good offset.

    My watch is currently giving me 51 and the times in that table for 48 work out pretty well. 5k and 10k a little slower than where I am right now, HM just about right, and marathon optimistic but not unreasonable.
  • I have my Resting HR at 94 which my watch says is about that most days.
    Training zones are as follows and were the default set but the Garmin website.


    Your resting HR is 94?? Have you been checked out by a doctor to be sure you should be running? Only ask out of concern, not to be rude.
  • Race times that are three points lower than the VO2 score works out for me too. Wonder if that's common?
  • My 'realistic' V02 is about 7 or 8 points lower on that chart.

    Max
  • My best times are around 55 on the chart but I've seen upto 61 on my watch. Currently I'm at 58 (but haven't raced for a couple of months)

    CW