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Race Predictor/VO2 Max off?

KirstenMitchell
over 8 years ago
Anybody else have issues with the race predictor and VO2 Max being off? My watch is telling me that my VO2 Max is 53 and that I can run a 19:50 5k and a 3:11 marathon. My current PRs are a 23:14 5k and a 3:53 marathon. What is up with it being so way off?????
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    I assume that the predictions are based on your PR for the shortest distance. My predictions are only 2 seconds off my 5k best, but then drift further away from reality as the distance gets longer (the marathon prediction being 25 minutes off my debut time from April).

    As your 5k time is way off, I suspect your watch has recorded a dodgy PR for 1k or 1 mile. GPS signal issues mean that sometimes you get a crazy record for these short distances just because the signal bounced off a building. You could try deleting these records, go for a quick 2k run in an open space without any sharp turns and let it set more sensible PRs for the 1k and 1 mile.
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    Anybody else have issues with the race predictor and VO2 Max being off? My watch is telling me that my VO2 Max is 53 and that I can run a 19:50 5k and a 3:11 marathon. My current PRs are a 23:14 5k and a 3:53 marathon. What is up with it being so way off?????


    The most common reason for the predictions being way off is if your max HR on the watch is a lot higher than you can actually get to. What is your max HR set to and what do you think is your actual max HR?
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    I assume that the predictions are based on your PR for the shortest distance. My predictions are only 2 seconds off my 5k best, but then drift further away from reality as the distance gets longer (the marathon prediction being 25 minutes off my debut time from April).


    Actually there is no correlation with the actual PR on the watch. The watch determines your VO2 Max and just does a look up of what those times equate to according to the lookup table it uses. It thus assumes the performance level is the same across the four distances. In your case it appears you are better at 5K than the marathon. That may not necessarily be so clear cut as my long experience of such things suggests that for non elite runners it is quite rare to be statistically "better" at longer distances than shorter ones.
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    Actually there is no correlation with the actual PR on the watch. The watch determines your VO2 Max and just does a look up of what those times equate to according to the lookup table it uses. It thus assumes the performance level is the same across the four distances. In your case it appears you are better at 5K than the marathon. That may not necessarily be so clear cut as my long experience of such things suggests that for non elite runners it is quite rare to be statistically "better" at longer distances than shorter ones.


    Thanks Tim. What you say sounds reasonable and I just tried deleting some of the records and, as you described, it had no effect on the predictor. I guess I was just thrown by the prediction for my 5k being so close. Now I think about it, it may have been suggesting better than my PR until recently - I cleared the watch data the other day downgrading from the beta and my VO2Max has been a few points lower than the past. I'm not too worried about my marathon time being so far out, as I've only done one but I've run 5k loads of times.
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    The most common reason for the predictions being way off is if your max HR on the watch is a lot higher than you can actually get to. What is your max HR set to and what do you think is your actual max HR?


    That may be what it is as I set my max HR from a recent 5k where my HR was atypically high. What is the best way to determine your max HR? Using data from the watch or from the standard formula, Tim?
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    I am not Tim, but have been running just over 40 years and have run over 84,8xx miles and been a heart rate guy since the first Polar watches hit the market, even before Garmin.
    I will try to be brief: The formula of 220 minus your age works for about 1/3 of folks.
    Best approach is to get a medically observed max stress test to determine your max HR. If Ok'd by your physician, go out and run a couple of warm up miles, then run up a steep hill, jog down and run up again, when I say run, push for all you are worth, if you see white spots and feel like gagging you are probably close to your max.
    Couple other things- max HR will vary depending on activity. My max bike HR was about 15-20 beats less than my running max HR.
    I have found my Max HR has declined over the years, or I just don't push as hard, probably a combo of both. My max was 207 back in my 40's. So for me the old formula of 220-my age- say 40 would reveal my max would be 160. Nearly 50 beats of the "tried and true" formula.
    Soon to be 73. My Max HR over the last few 5/10k's hovers around 190.
    I continue to be fascinated by how much misinformation is out there on HR.
    PS I have run in over 500 races( 18 marathons/ 27 ultra runs) and have coached a lot of runners over the years.
    My best advice if you want to run the rest of your life is slow down. I have consistently run 2-3 minutes slower than race pace over the last 4 decades for 90-95% of my runs. My PR's after 10 years of running were set in my early 40's. 17:45/5K, 36:35 10K. Far from elite runners but not bad for a guy who smoked at least a pack of cigarettes a day from my late teens till I woke up and quit-11/75 and started regular running in April, 1976.
    Thanks for letting me share/brag. Nick:)
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    Agree with Nick there that hill reps are a good way to achieve max HR. The key is to be well warmed up and I wouldn't make the hill too short - maybe at least a minute and keep driving to the end as that is when the HR will really rocket! May need to do this 2 or 3 times to be sure of getting it all out. This is hard work though!

    Then again a more "rough and ready" check would be to look again at your 5K. Typically, if reasonably fresh coming into a race and you don't go too hard too soon then the HR you get to at the end of the 5K (assuming that is the max for the run) will probably be within 5-10 beats of max and sometimes closer. If you would like to post the GC link to your 5K we can attempt to guestimate your max HR from this.

    Of course if you see higher from another run (and it isn't obviously a false reading) then go with that.

    HR is very individual. 190 HRs aged 72 for Nick is very unusual in my experience. I am 49 now and struggle to get much past mid 160s these days so mine is set at 165. I did 193 when I in my mid 20s - also was a fairly early Polar HRM user. So, for me, 220-Age isn't far off but not exactly right.
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    Thanks for both of your replies, Tim and Nick!

    Tim, I am attaching 2 screenshots of my last 2 recent races. Not sure how to decipher them since they are very different! I thought I might die in the one from 6/11/16 but in my last race from 7/4/16 felt much better. Btw, I'm 48 and got a check up by a cardiologist a few years ago before my first marathon when my heart rate monitor would hit over 200. He did a stress test, an echo, etc and said I'm fine and to continue with what I'm doing. In my typical easy runs, I will average a 135- 145 average HR, if that helps. My resting average HR is 45, according to GC.

    Nick, we have something in common! I am a former smoker of over 20 years, also. I quit in 2011 and took up running to lose the extra weight I gained. Fell in love with it and have been running ever since. Feels so great to be healthier! Thanks for the advice about slowing down my runs. Need that reminder!

    Your guidance/thoughts are appreciated.
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    Not much to add to the great advice.

    There was a very long thread in the 620 thread about the VO2 max and accuracy of predicted times. As others have said, they're just times pulled from a chart and generally speaking the 5K could be ballpark if all the stars align, 10K ambitious and HM and FM time (very) aggressive.

    Mine are quite a bit out too. I think the VO2 is useful and I like it, but I just use it as a rough guide. I was surprised I got a new record of 55 at the end of a 10K race recently as I haven't been training that much and laughed out loud at the race times, has gone down one place recently but times are still no where realistic unless I move to Iten and log about 85MPW for about 12 weeks!;)
  • 0 over 8 years ago
    Hello Kirsten
    Can you post the HR graph for those two as well to check the values look correct.
    Thanks
    Tim