Garmin’s AI is really just IF-statements in a tuxedo — Will they survive in the long run?

After a few months of structured training and digging deep into the data, I’m starting to question how much “intelligence” is actually built into Garmin’s ecosystem.

Garmin often positions itself as a smart training companion — adaptive, personalized, and data-driven. But the more I look under the hood, the more it feels like a collection of glorified IF-statements wearing a bow tie.

Take this real-world example: I quit smoking recently. Since then, my HRV has increased significantly, my resting heart rate has dropped, and I genuinely feel better — stronger, more recovered, and ready to train. And yet, Garmin interprets the change in HRV as a sign of increased stress and insists I need more recovery. It flagged the trend as if something was wrong — when in fact, something had finally gone right.

Wouldn’t it be logical for an “intelligent” watch to ask, “Your HRV is significantly higher than normal — have you made any lifestyle changes?” Imagine if you could then say, “Yes, I quit smoking,” and Garmin would adjust its baseline expectations and give smarter feedback. That’s what a coach would do. That’s what actual AI would do. But Garmin doesn’t ask questions — it just reacts.

And the VO₂max training logic? It doesn’t add up either. I had a recent session with 16 solid minutes in my VO₂max heart rate zone — textbook structure, excellent quality — and Garmin gave me less VO₂max benefit than a previous session that was clearly inferior. Why? Because it seems to judge based on shallow metrics: average pace, heart rate spike, overall duration. Not quality. Not progression. Not execution.

The watch doesn’t “know” if the intervals were better than last week’s. It doesn’t recognize that you nailed your pacing, or that you’re handling more volume at the same effort. It’s still just: if X bpm + Y pace + Z time, then increase fitness score. Else, nothing.

Don’t get me wrong — Garmin’s hardware is top-tier. Sensors are accurate, battery life is amazing, and the ecosystem is rich. But if Garmin wants to stay competitive, especially with platforms like Runalyze and HRV4Training creeping up with much smarter insights, it needs to evolve. Fast.

What Garmin needs isn’t more alerts or metrics — it’s context. It’s adaptability. It’s the ability to recognize you as an individual who’s changing over time, and to respond intelligently when something big shifts in your life, your health, or your training.

Right now, it’s all just logic trees. IF-statements dressed up in a tuxedo and pretending to be your coach.

Still useful — just don’t confuse it for smart.

What do you think?

  • Just a quick comment on the VO2max part: Your fitness develops during recovery after your activity. So the effect of some exercise on VO2max can only be seen some time after the exercise (you do better in your following exercises on the whole). So even the Garmin VO2max estimate is both a lagging and slow indicator of your development. And it should be, since that's how physiology works.

  • And then one wants to use DSW for preparing for 26km trail race with elevation about 1600m. He puts this race to calendar a few moths ago and the DSW suggestions are just, well, no optimal... :)

  • And the VO₂max training logic? It doesn’t add up either. I had a recent session with 16 solid minutes in my VO₂max heart rate zone — textbook structure, excellent quality — and Garmin gave me less VO₂max benefit than a previous session that was clearly inferior. Why? Because it seems to judge based on shallow metrics: average pace, heart rate spike, overall duration. Not quality. Not progression. Not execution.
    Just a quick comment on the VO2max part: Your fitness develops during recovery after your activity. So the effect of some exercise on VO2max can only be seen some time after the exercise (you do better in your following exercises on the whole). So even the Garmin VO2max estimate is both a lagging and slow indicator of your development. And it should be, since that's how physiology works.

    My interpretation of "less VO2max benefit" is that OP means the aerobic training effect value/label, not the literal impact on VO2max (i.e. the change from the previous VO2Max value to the current value). I could be wrong tho.

    It's hard to see the impact on VO2Max as it's rounded to the nearest whole number in most places. To see the (usually fractional) impact on VO2Max of any one activity, you'd either have to eyeball the graph on the watch itself (Training Status > VO2Max) where the graphed data points are not rounded (but the unrounded numerical values are still unavailable) or dig into the activity FIT files via fitfileviewer to see the fractional user vo2max values.

    Even using runalyze probably wouldn't be sufficient, as that only shows activity VO2Max and not user VO2Max (which corresponds to the VO2Max shown in Connect afaik).

    I agree that a lot of Garmin metrics / automated training guidance are nonsense (or unreliable). See: threads like "4 weeks left in my Garmin marathon plan and 0 long runs so far :/"

    I like looking at the trends for certain Garmin metrics  (like VO2Max), but I never take the absolute values too seriously (except for things that are obviously fairly objective, like distance, time, pace, and heart rate).

  • Yeah, I'm thinking more in helicopter view......how can you survive in 2025 and ahead, when so much intelligence is missing? You can take your runs and feed them to ie chatgpt and get a lot of useul info from that, but why isn't it a part of Garmins universe? 

    I would expect that the first one who uses AI intelligent to help it's users in a meaningful way, would basically corner the market? No? Who knows?

    Just input to a debate about why on earth AI is not instantly a big part of Garmin, Coros etc.

  • I'm generally skeptical of any company that touts the introduction of AI into their existing products, as it's often more hype than substance.

    And since Garmin can't seem to implement a music player without glaring bugs in the year 2025, I don't doubt your assessment of their "AI" implementation.

  • Idk, I think Strava's Athlete Intelligence feature is a joke, but I'm skeptical on LLMs in general. I guess it's ironic as I'm a dev.

    Also, I don't think Garmin claims to use AI (as in LLMs) in any of its standard features. The AI-powered insights are reserved for Connect+, right?