Has the lactate threshold increased or is it a mistake?

For the last six months my lactate threshold has been 161 bpm, pace 4:39, VO2max 55. Max heart rate 179-180. I am 42 years old. I live in Israel, I run in the heat, and now it is cold here.

Today I ran a test mile in 6:17 on hills and downhills with a pace of 3:55. After that, Garmin showed my lactate threshold at a heart rate of 172 with a pace of 3:57. Max heart rate increased to 192. To be honest, the last time I saw my heart rate of 195 bpm was when I was 35. I run with HRM pro plus.

Question: is this a Garmin error or is it true (given the weather change)? In July, I ran 5 km in 20:51. If Garmin correctly determined the lactate threshold, I should run 5 km under 20 minutes.

Another question: what pace does Garmin call the lactate threshold? The pace that can be sustained for 20-30 minutes or what? In reality, we have two lactate thresholds: the first and the second. And I don’t understand which one Garmin shows. I’ve been involved in sports all my life, I’m a professional weightlifter, and after a career in weightlifting, I decided to try running.

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