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20.26 firmware sudden race predictor and endurance score spike

rundad86
2 months ago

Hi all, 

955 user here just updated to 20.26 yesterday (rest day), first run after upgrade today. Normal 12-13km VO2 max mile repeats session. Got back and watch showing absolutely nonsense dive in race prediction times. 5km time dived from 18:09-ish to 17:22. Marathon time dive from 3:01:00-ish to 2:53:52.

These numbers are ridiculous and it’s ruined any sense of achievement I’ve gotten by slowly improving these times during my recent marathon training block. I know these aren’t super accurate anyway but that’s beside the point; they were at least stable before.

Is anyone else experiencing this problem? 

I must say, first the optical HR sensor issue and now this? Are you actively trying to drive your customers away, Garmin?

Edit: for context my current half PB is 1:27 and change and 3:20:xx marathon, 37:55 10km. All from a few years back but fitness very similar in this block, same reported VO2 max figure. Recent half training run have been slower and probably not at sub 38 10km pace either but prediction is 36:40 which is nonsense.

Endurance score jumped a huge amount too, fwiw. Somewhere in the neighbourhood of 400 points.

- Seriously annoyed runner 

  • 0 2 months ago in reply to 965guy

    Agreed - it's estimates are now actually inline with the times I have run recently so it's a great improvement as far as I am concerned.

  • 0 2 months ago in reply to rundad86
    rundad86 said:
    Maybe it’s just using VO2 and not factoring in that I’m probably an inefficient runner at my VO2 max

    What it definitely does:
    Use VO2Max AND your accumulated effort. Compare the curves for the predicted racing times with the curves for the "Endurance score". Slight smile
    At least before this last update, it was just the same, but inverted (x* (-1)).

    Maybe this is what they changed - include some other factor beside VO2Max and Endurance score / recent effort.

  • 0 2 months ago

    For me the predicted times in the VO2Max/Prediction glance now _finally_ exactly match the predictions Garmin makes when setting a goal time or pace for a scheduled race. These were always way off (about 1 minute slower for 5k and more than 2 minutes slower for a 10k in comparison to the predictions for the scheduled race). I always wondered why they differed so much, but now it seems the 'new algorithm'  was already active for these scheduled race predictions. Also, for me the new predictions are close enough to actual race times from the last 3 months (still about 10-15 seconds slower for 5k and about 30-45 seconds slower for 10k but I can live with this relatively small margin). So it seems the 'improved algorithm' works for some but unfortunately not for all of us.

  • 0 2 months ago in reply to J-Do

    Interesting point. Just so I’m sure I understand correctly, are you talking about the predicted times for the “primary race” or “race calendar” glances? Or, something else?

    I just looked at those two glances on my watch but the prediction chart follows pretty much the same trend as the “performance” (aka the race prediction) glance. There is a tiny difference - maybe 15 secs for marathon, negligible - but both exhibit the sharp decline in estimated time a few days back. 

  • 0 2 months ago in reply to rundad86

    Yes, for me the predicted times for the primary race and race calendar glances now match the VO2Max/Lactate threshold/Race predictions (Performance) glance. Until I received the update yesterday overall performance predictions were as follows:

    5k: 18:55, 10k 40:13 half marathon 1:29:39 marathon 3:18:48

    When I woke up this morning they had changed to

    5k 18:11, 10k 38:28 half marathon 1:25:57 marathon 3:10:16

    The 5k and 10k predictions now match the predictions for races in the coming weeks I'd already planned before the update. Until yesterday, they differed by 44 seconds (5k) and 1'45'' (10k) respectively. I recently (within the last 3 months) ran 17:54 and 18:00 5k races and 37:24 and 38:01 (the last one under hot and humid conditions) 10k's. Training and overall fitness haven't changed that much, so the new estimates seem to be fairly accurate. Half marathon and marathon are still way off though (estimates respectively about 4 and 10 minutes too slow I'd guess, but to be fair I haven't raced both distances in a while - PB in march 2023 1:21:20, 10k races during that year were also between 37 and 38 minutes). So I'm afraid this doesn't help much. Weird that the update seems to correct predictions in a positive way for some but overestimates it for others.

  • 0 2 months ago in reply to J-Do

    Thanks for confirming. Super interesting. So, in contrast, for me, having only run a 1:27:x half and 3:20:x full but currently in what I thought was similar shape now, I see 1:20:xx and 2:53:xx which seems crazy given your estimates are higher than that but you’ve run much faster than me. 

  • 0 2 months ago

    I have a very similar issue on 20.26.  My half marathon prediction sudden jumped from 1hr 45min to 1hr 32min and it has been stuck at the exact same time down to the second for a week.

  • 0 2 months ago

    My times have gone crazy low after the update having previously been very accurate. I'm now being predicted 15.06 for 5km, a 88 second PB, and 70 mins for a half marathon, which would be a 6 minute PB. I'll not be able to get anywhere near these time.  

  • 0 2 months ago

    2 day ago I've done a 10km in 40min at maximum effort. Garmin continues to say that I'm able to run 10km in 34:39, with a little emprovement after that race!!!