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Is race predictor utterly broken?

Been using my 955 since release and generally happy with it, although it has rebooted a few times recently when pausing and using garmin pay mid run..

However, my main issue is with race predictor and VO2 measures. 

I've been injured for a while, and then focusing on base build for ultra marathons. VO2 seemingly fixed on 51, and capable of a 5k in about 23mins flat out. 

Since October I have upped the miles, and upped the intensity. 5k time has come down to 20:26 this weekend (about 85% effort after 18 miles the day before and a 60 mile week), and today I ran 2x5k with 60s standing recovery between them, and clocked 21:50 and then 21:35.

VO2 on the watch has stuck at 51 since November, and race predictor says I should do a 5k in 21:44.. 2 days after in ran one, with high acute training load, over a minute quicker! 

I use a scosche rhythm optical heart rate monitor for every run, and got far better data out of my 945 than I am getting now (same hr monitor). The 945 gave a VO2 of 54-55 when I was running similar times last year. 

Lactate threshold hasn't shown data in Garmin connect since September! 

Firmware 14.13

What's up with this, and is it a known issue that's being looked at? Or am I missing something? Is the VO2 somehow stuck? 

  • There has to be more to it than that because the current values and the future values don’t match.

    My watch is telling me that it expects my fitness to deteriorate between now and the race. 

    At one point in the past it was guessing that my fitness would improve - my future race estimates were noticeably faster than my current estimates. The situation has flipped now though and I can’t understand why, especially given the recent trends of improved fitness. 

    Just wondering if anyone knows what additional info feeds into future race predictions that makes them different from the present race predictions. 

  • But the values it is giving me is non sensical.

    The v02max widget predicts I do a 42.2km in 4h00 - realistic and fairly accurate.

    Race widget predicts I finish a 90km (Comrades Ultra Marathon) in 7h08. My training plan has me finishing between 11h and 12h.

    How is it possible for me to run a 90km way faster than my marathon pace? It is basically expecting me to run 90km at my 5 mile pace!!!

  • It takes the course profile (elevation) and the weather on that day into account

  • I do not think race prediction takes into account profile elevation. Into my experience in trail running races the estimated predicted time is correct if I run in a flat race but not with important profile elevations like > 800 Mt....

  • It tskes elevation account since the recent beta release. As I said in a previous post here, my predicted time for a trail run substantially increased after the update and it also displays the suggestion now to incorporate more hills into my training