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Race Predictor So Far Off

Lach91
over 2 years ago

I’ve been running 5kms each week for about 6 weeks in about 25 mins. However my race predictor thinks my race time for a 5km is 39 mins. It’s not even close. Surely it should update when the predictor is slower than you have actually ran within the last month!

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    Beta 12.27

    Change Log

    • Fixed an issue with the calculation of run cadence.
    • Fixed potential inaccuracies in race time predictions.
    • Updated translations for Asian languages.

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    Beta 12.27 out now.

    5K predicted time dropped from 17:22 to 18:29 which is more reflective in my case.

  • +1 over 2 years ago

    All,

    Please see our recently released beta software for a fix addressing this report. If you prefer to not install this beta software, we hope to be rolling out a public software update soon, though I do not have a timeline for this release. If you are still seeing this issue after installing the beta software, please contribute your observations in the appropriate beta bug reports section of the beta forums for your specific device.

    Enrolling in Garmin Beta Software Program

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    While the training effect calculation was wrong (FW 12.23), I was actually impressed with the race predictor for the first time, including the time I spent with my previous 945 LTE.

    Race time prediction has always been 1+ minute slow for my 10k and 30+ seconds slow for my 5k times. On FW 12.23, the watch was about 5 seconds too optimistic (!) for a 5k and about 20 seconds too pessimistic for a 10k. On FW 12.25 and 12.27, it's business as usual, where I can only pay attention to how the times are trending because the estimated time is consistently way off, by the same margin as all previous firmwares.

    I'm speculating that the cause is Garmin favouring hard training efforts when calculating an athlete's potential, whereas my training mostly consists of a mix of easy and threshold training, rarely trying to go above my critical speed outside of races. If that's the case, it would be nice if Garmin figured out a way to calculate semi-accurate race times across athletes who subscribe to different training philosophies, perhaps treating recent race results as calibration points rather than paying them no additional attention than any other workout.

  • 0 over 2 years ago

    Race predictor was always rather accurate for me before the last beta update 12.27.

    Now it shows times far slower i'm capable of running. Week ago i ran half marathon in 1h49min but watch predicted time was 1h58min and it stays about the same after the race.

    Runalyze prediction is 1h51min and before the race was minute or two faster so 100% accurate. Before the update Garmin prediction was kinda same - 1h50min to 1h52min.