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Accuracy of VO2 Max Estimate for "Slow" Runners

I bought a Forerunner 945 two weeks ago and I really like it.  I know I am low on the fitness spectrum and just finished Couch to 5K several weeks ago. My last 5k times were about 39-41 min.  The VO2 Max estimate  computed by the Garmin has ranged from 33 to 31. These ranges are on the "Poor" end of the spectrum for my age (male of 55 years with BMI of 34).  The biggest thing that concerns me is that on my new training plan, my easy and long runs are improving in terms of pace and ease, but VO2 max keeps declining.  I am wondering if the VO2 Max estimates are very reliable at low fitness/VO2 max levels. My hunch is that most data Garmin & Firstbeat use is from relatively well trained athletes and not so much so for former couch potatoes.

Appreciate any info. 

  • Is all the data correct on your watch? Weight, age etc? You’ve only had the watch a fortnight which is a short time, it’ll still be “learning” about you. 

    There are plenty of back o the pack runners that use Garmin too. Garmin wouldn’t sell much if only competitive club runners and local champions bought their watches. Lol! 

  • About VO2Max absolute value:

    Your metrics calculated by the watch about your estimated pace for 5k are near the truth?

    About declining of Vo2Max value:

    - Which kind of training are you doing and with kind of frequency?

    - Could you post a screenshot of your training status pages (current and 4 weeks) and training load pages (all three pages)?

  • Hi,

    if you are looking at Vo2Max deviations over two weeks, then just ignore it :). Vo2Max is a rather slow moving metric, you can look at trends over months, but certainly not much happens week by week.

    Note that certain types of work-outs will always give the watch a "high impression" of your Vo2Max while certain others will give a "low impression", so depending on your workout mix, the numbers might dip or rise without any real change in fitness:

    - Running fast and flat (e.g. intervalls on a track) always leads my watch to consider my Vo2Max as rising/improved

    - Running technical terrain and hills [e.g. mountain trails] will always be considered very poor Vo2Max [which is probably the main reason why Garmin has "Trail Running" as dedicated sports mode - it basically skips the Vo2Max calculation for trail running, as it would be very low :)].

    My bottom line for you is: The Vo2max guestimation on fitness watches is more of a ballpark and only useful as a trend line over months - if you want to track your fitness the gold standard is to do a test every few weeks. One easy to do test is to complete a defined fixed route that you like while shooting for a "easy" heart-rate that you have fixed. E.g. for me I might run my favorite loop with 145bpm as target. Note down the achieved heart-rate average and time. If the times go down (and you manage to hit the heart-rate goal), that's a good sign you are getting fitter :).

  • I suggest using Runalyze as a second opinion. It is free and produces very good estimates of VO2MAX and race times. 

  • i think with your BMI it's totally clear that your vo2max is so low, same with your pace for 5k, if you have a BMI arround 22-23 and a 5k time arround 30 minutes you could have a vo2max of 35-38

    your body weight is very important for your vo2max!

  • One more thing to check is heart rate. I suppose you rely on optical HR monitor in the watch. This is not very accurate, at least in my case. Try wearing a strap which generally gives a more accurate readings.

    In my case I use optical from spring to fall and strap in the winter. My VO2 Max readings for winter are higher despite a visibly less training and slower speeds given the conditions. So there could be some impact of this. My estimate would be of about 1-3 units lower  VO2 Max readings for optical HR vs. strap.

  • Great post. Speed at VO2max is a better measure than VO2max in isolation. As noted, as you get fitter, pace should increase for the same heart rate.