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Improved race predictor?

Levon
over 5 years ago

I read that the Garmin watches 245, 945, and onward have an improved race predictor algorithm that takes your actual running history into account along with the improved VO2Max calculation.

The 945's race prediction is definitely much less optimistic than the 230, so that's a good sign. I haven't had a chance to test this out with a race as I'm getting ready for a marathon in a few weeks. I wonder if anyone has had a chance to see how on-target the new race predictor's algorithm is? Or what your take is on this.

  • 0 over 5 years ago

    My main predictor is Runalyze which is very precise when configured properly. My previous Garmins were far off (too optimistic) even after adjusting max heartrate lower to the maximum heartrate that was reached within the last few months.

    The 945 and Runalyze predictions are currently almost par now, and the 945 even a bit pessimistic. Maybe I will change max HR back to my theoretical max.

  • 0 over 5 years ago

    It’s definitely a vast improvement over the older version which was just a look up table. I’ve been using it for just over 8 weeks and the times are in line with my PRs. 

    I notice in hotter weather(25C+)or if I haven’t done runs longer than say about 10m(15k approx) my marathon time will go down by 5-10 minutes.

    Remember though these times are with perfect training, taper in good weather and on a PR course. 

    If you don’t have time for a tune up race before the marathon I’d add a few minutes to the predicted time and see how the first half of the race goes, better to go out conservatively. 

  • 0 over 5 years ago

    What is still ridiculous is that the estimates for lactate threshold and VO2max are so disconnected. Had situations were I was supposed to be able to run a marathon lots faster than my LT pace. Well, a little sanity and crosschecking would help here.

  • 0 over 5 years ago

    The predictions are much closer to reality than what I got with my fenix 3hr. On the 3hr they were way too optimistic. 

  • 0 over 5 years ago

    Mine is a bit off on the pessimistic side. My GR predicted a 10 k 47:40. I ran a 10 mile race on sept 1st and my split on the 10 k was 46:40