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Race time Prediction - NEW algorithm

Hi,

the new race time predictions semes to be hugely more accurate then the previous ones in previous devices. What factors the current agorithm take in account for the calculation ?

thanks

Danilo

Top Replies

HermanB over 4 years ago +4 suggested

Hi DaniloDiMarco

This is probably what you are looking for: https://www.firstbeat.com/en/consumer-feature/race-time-predictor/

The short answer to your question is that 3 key elements were added.

1. Long…
Fredderic over 4 years ago +2

The reviews I read stated that the new factor is previous milages, so it will scale down the long distance predictions if you did not put in the work. Previous versions only did a look-up based on the…
Levon over 4 years ago +2

Agreed, the times is shows compared to my 230 are much more in tune with reality, esp the longer distance runs (up to marathon)

All Replies

0 caferey over 4 years ago in reply to fuscobal

It could be your max HM on the watch is too low, try and bump it up by 5 or 7. You’ve got more gas in the tank than the watch thinks. You should see your VO2 go up by a one or two points and see more accurate times.

I’ve had mine for over 6 months and the times are very accurate, 10K times are within 10-20 seconds and HM between 30-90 seconds. (If I’m in a period of heavy training by VO2 goes up and times come down)

0 PALIREK over 4 years ago

For me fits V02max from the watch. Then, when I use table from following link, then I get right values which fits:

https://cicerunner.wordpress.com/2014/07/11/garmin-fr620-race-times-from-vo2-max/

But when I look in predicted times directly in the watch "glance widget", that is completely off...marathon is 30 minutes off.

Not sure why VO2max is not bound with certain race times. Or am I looking into wrong table?

0 kmac over 4 years ago in reply to PALIREK

My FR945 is nowhere near accurate. Just did a relatively easy 10km training run (HR avg low 150s) and yet my predicted 10km time is still 2 minutes slower than what I just ran in the easy training run. It makes no sense to be that much slower. It is probably a good 6-7 minutes off what I can run over 10kms so not even remotely close. The watch must be predicting my time based on running the 10km up a mountain.

I will try bumping up my max HR as suggested above and see if that makes a difference.

0 DaniloDiMarco over 3 years ago

Hi HermanB Former Member despite the current algorythm is improved a lot compared to the previous versions, I think it should take in to acount the real race times the user achieve. I.e. : yesterday I ran a 5000 m on track in 16'40" but the race prediction still display 17'20"... It is something you can improve in to future beta releases?