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Can unproductive training status result from switching to riding a heavy fat bike in cold and snow?

I'm in the Northeast and transition from running and biking in warm weather on good surfaces with light equipment to the complete opposite in the winter.  I"ve never had training status appear until I began using a Forerunner 245 a few weeks ago. In the winter, I use a heavy fat bike; I ride in snow; it's cold.  I've had an 'unproductive' training status for a week and I'm wondering if it's just because, back in warmer weather, I could easily knock off faster miles and longer rides on my road bike and now my heart pounds and I'm slower on shorter rides.  My VO2max hasn't gone down, I feel fine, strong, my training load is 'optimal' but Connect tells me I'm apparently losing fitness. 

Garmin Connect doesn't know what my bikes weigh or how they differ in rolling resistance and doesn't seem to consider ambient temps or conditions.  Could my 'unproductive' status be completely due to my cold, snowy, heavy bike conditions?  I'd love for the training status to be useful to me, but maybe it's not going to be helpful in winter situations.