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Forerunner 245 Music metrics messed up it seems

I'm not one to worry about metrics too much, but mine these days just has me second guessing myself.  Last year I ran a fall marathon and the race predictor had me about a minute faster than I actually ran.  Which in my opinion is pretty dang close and accurate for a race that long.  Fast forward to this year I am running a fall marathon again and on this training block I have been getting wacky readings.  I noticed it about back in May that my readings were not shifting around at all like the used to.  My VO2 max literally doesn't move at all anymore, whereas last year it moved a matter of 6-8 points over my whole training block. 

That being said, my load readings are wacky too now because I used to notice that once you'd reach a certain point with fitness at a certain load rating (typically high) it would kind of step you down number wise and insert you into a new higher bracket of fitness and then it would repeat that process.  With that happening my Vo2 would move up accordingly.  It seemed this was the case because one day my reading would be high and then it would read super low.  It isn't not doing this now, I am hitting like 1400 on my load rating trying to try to get it to do what it used to do and it isn't moving at all.  My vo2 has literally moved 1 point since June.  My races times in a 2 mile and 10k I run annually during the summer...I ran PR/PBs at both of them.  My race times show my fitness is slightly better than the year before but my watch is saying my marathon is going to be 6 minutes slower.  I just don't get it.  Ever since the last update it seems, the algorithms that Garmin uses is not right....as compared to what it used to be.  My training if anything has been more intense this summer into fall and I feel a bit more fit too. 

Just wondering if anyone can shed any insight on this, just a bit frustrating.  By the way I have a 245 music.

Thanks everyone!

  • To add to this, I will say the only thing that has changed really is where I am training as opposed to the previous year.  I am exclusively training on a bike trail that is very tree covered.  I notice my instant pace is almost always not reading correctly because of this.  For example...the tree cover causes, even when I am doing intervals, my Garmin to say I am running a 6:05 mile pace when I am running at or below a 5 minute pace.  So I guess my question is does instant pace vs. heart rate have any affect on the metrics given?