From what I can tell, the 245M benefits from updated innards, improved sensors, and 3 extra FirstBeat metrics.
The previous method Garmin was using was a simple lookup table based on Age, Gender, and Vo2Max. And usually was pretty optimistic about loner races.
Not to be pedantic, but the previous race prediction method was based completely on a lookup table from VO2Max alone (and not age/gender — those might affect the VO2Max calculations, although I always thought VO2Max was derived from pace vs HR without regard to age or gender.) In your example with a VO2Max of 51, any other Garmin user with a VO2Max of 51 would’ve gotten the exact same race predictions, regardless of age and gender.
It was no different than any of the VDOT/equivalent race calculators you could find on the web — e.g. “What’s my equivalent VDOT/VO2Max/half marathon time if I can run a 10k in 40 minutes?”. (Those calculators don’t care about your age or gender either, except after the fact, to give you an age grade.)
So, does the 245 not measure any change in elevation at all? I just ordered one and if that's the case I'm sending it back without even opening it! I mean, I don't run hills daily but I do run hills. I can't believe they'd make a running watch that doesn't record net elevation gain/loss.
I found the answer. I am coming from the 630 so nothing changes in that regard, phew!
It does measure, but not so precise as FR945 or other device with barometric altimeter. I got gain 33 m and loss 41 m in total today, at the same time 945 shows less than 5 m on that distance, that is true.