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Fat burning when low training readiness, bad sleep and unstable HRV?

So main goal for me is to burn fat.

On treadmill I run 10km, in about 1hour.

And I have following question:

Case 1: good hrv, good sleep, high training readiness, 1hour run, distance=10km. Amount of burned fat =BF1.

Case 2: bad hrv, very bad sleep, low (5) training readiness, 1hour run, distance=10km. Amount of burned fat =BF2.

Question 1

IS BF1 equal to BF2?

(or cortisol level, which is probably higher in Case2, will make BF2<BF1, how much, if I take KSM66 before will it reduce cortisol?)

Question 2

What worse can happen if i am doing it many times, every day for 1 month and in most cases my body is in CASE 2 scenario?

(i know, i can be more tired and feel like cant run, but i am forcing myself to do it, also yes there is difference in heart rate, but does it matter much?)