Dubious InReach Weather

It's really great being able to get current weather forecasts in the wild.  Unless the forecasts are prepared by a troop of chimpanzees with a childish sense of humor. These pictures were taken in the same eight-day period.  There was a similar scene between the two that I failed to photograph.  

I suspect a third-party weather provider is simply returning the forecast from the nearest official weather station.  But one of the main applications for InReach devices is back country living/travel where the nearest weather station is often, if not usually, far away and with much different geography.  If anyone knows how the forecasts are prepared, please post a comment here.

Aside from the inaccuracy of forecasts, there are other strange implausibilities.  When InReach weather shows a high likelihood of rain for a day, the probability of rain for each two-hour period during that day will almost always be zero in my experience (limited as my experience is).  The one exception is for the two-hour segment current when the forecast is returned.  In other words, the forecast for today or tomorrow may show an 80 percent chance of rain, while every two-hour segment for that day shows a zero percent probability of rain.  If I keep asking for new forecasts every few hours, the probability of rain for the two-hour window I'm in may accurately show a high probability of rain even though the forecast two hours earlier showed no such possibility.

What makes this especially weird is that in the United States the Weather Service prepares highly localized forecasts that are accessible by URLs specified by coordinates.  I believe those Weather Service forecasts take into account various factors like terrain that affect local weather.  In one instance, I compared the Weather Service forecast for Island Lake in the Bridger Wilderness at 03:00 UTC (Hourly Graphical Forecast for 43.08N 109.64W (weather.gov)) to a simultaneous InReach forecast.  They were significantly different, with regards to rain, barometric pressure and winds, though they were not outrageously different for any of those parameters in the one comparison I checked.

For instructions on how to access this weather, see my post in another thread at Weather report via inReach for Mountaineers - inReach Mini - inReach - Garmin Forums.

So even though InReach weather is a great idea, I still have to send a message to a friend with Internet access in order to get a forecast I can rely on for my position.