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My race predictions is very wrong. Is there anything I'm doing wrong?

My race predictions on my Garmin watch are:

5k-20:11

10k-44:13

And the predictions have been about the same for the last 12 months. In this same period I have run several 5k runs between 18:20 and 19:10, and 10k runs between 38:40 and 40:00.

My own prediction is that I now can run a 5k below 19:00 and a 10k below 39:00.

There is obviously something wrong with the inputs to Garmin, but I don't know what.

Can someone please help me to get better race predictions?