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Garmin running power ftp

I'm doing a 10K race in a few days and decided to use Garmin running power rather than pace. Today I did a test run based on 90-95% of FTP, which should be around my 10k race pace. The resulting pace was far less than required to reach the watch's 10K estimate.

Assuming the FTP was too low, I did a 3-minute/9-minute FTP test and manually updated the running FTP on the watch. I reran the workout on the same course and got a pace in the ballpark to meet the 10K race estimate.

I've been using the watch for a while and have running FTP set to auto-detect, so I wonder why the estimate was so far out - 32 watts less than my FTP test.

How is Garmin actually estimating the FTP?

Thanks

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