A thought about Garmins fate

I meant Garmin's protocol...you know the one they use on their own HRM straps and speed/cadence sensors?

That's what I meant too. Everyone can use Garmin's ANT+ protocol on competing devices.

I'll make a few predictions in the fitness tech area, which I am very involved with.

1) Sensors of all kinds will get smaller and cheaper and will be connected at all times to wireless networks.

This will allow devices to go from gross measurement of physical activity (cadence, power, GPS), to biomedical measurement systems embedded in clothing and eventually our bodies. Data streams from heart rate, blood lactate levels, respiratory VO2 measurements, muscle neuro response fatigue and more will be available (at a price).

2) Most people will carry with them (in everyday life) a handheld display/multimedia/input device which is wirelessly connected within 5 years.

Displays will get better, processors faster, app devs will continue to innovate...

3) Certain applications (performance fitness, underwater) will continue to require specialized input/output devices.

But this is probably not going to take the form of a wristwatch. Clothing will again lead the way, with imbedded e-ink display panels in shirt sleeves, performance info delivered via voice audio in headbands, hats and earpieces and input voice or gesture (not button) controlled.

4) Solutions will continue to trend toward open systems.

ANT is not the final answer.

5) Software for performance athletes will slowly get smarter and more customized to the athlete.

Training guidance will migrate to social network driven web apps where people can share and collaborate with coaches, recreational athletes and others in the fitness profession. Training plans will be based on actual measured performance and physical athlete characteristics, collected from various devices described above and not simple rules of thumb. Eventually software will become intelligent enough to make training recommendations based on athlete data and physiological models.

What does this mean for the industry?

Innovation on item #1 is going to take place with medical companies partnering with asian manufacturers that license tech to apparel companies (Nike, et al). Sensor tech will become "invisible" to consumers, ie. you won't go out and buy a heart rate monitor - you'll buy a new sports bra with a built in HRM. You won't buy a GPS, you'll buy shoes with it built in.

On item #2 we will see history repeat itself with Apple. The iPhone will become a high-end boutique product stuck at 10% market share and Android devices will dominate the rest of the industry (much like Windows on the desktop). For a lot of fitness applications (walking, cycling, hiking), a standard smartphone with the right app will be "good enough" (see others posts)

#3 will be dominated by apparel and performance fashion companies, similar to #1. There is not a lot of innovation here, once you have the basic wireless and display tech developed, it becomes a matter of creatively (and aesthetically) applying it to the clothing.

#4 will be solved by a yet-to-be-decided low power wireless standard.

#5 will be driven by small software companies dedicated to fitness, driven by university researchers and those in the sport industry, and very large social network sites (facebook, etc).

What does this mean for Garmin?

With Nike, Google, Apple, Facebook, and a myriad of asian manufacturers in this picture, it doesn't leave a lot of room for a wrist/handheld GPS gadget company. The smartphone line will be dead by mid 2010. The car navigation division will be gone by 2011. Handhelds and fitness will follow over the next 5 years.

I predict Garmin will see their business over the next 10 years trend back towards commecial air and marine products, which was their bread and butter for many years. These devices have a much higher level of quality and performance requirements and is a niche they can serve well, especially with their existing corporate relationships.

Bottom line, I personally don't see Garmin as a consumer product company in 10 years.

waiting on better battery for iPhone

I only use the 705 cuz the iPhone's battery isn't good enough. I'd be perfectly happy dropping Garmin on the whole, if Apple made better and longer lasting batteries for the iPhone - so I could choose the apps.

This goes for my Garmin 696 too that I use for flying. RIDICULOUS amounts of $, let alone to keep it up to date on the maps, airspaces, etc.

4) Solutions will continue to trend toward open systems.

ANT is not the final answer.
...

#4 will be solved by a yet-to-be-decided low power wireless standard.

I agree that sensor protocols will become open, but there isn't that much that is closed with ANT. What do you think is missing? The hardware is cheap, the ANT protocol is documented and simple to implement and the only thing that isn't documented on the ANT level is the format of network keys which aren't really necessary to use anyway. They're perhaps similar to vlan tags. I've found about 400 of them so if anyone wants to spend a couple of hours to fully figure out the validation mechanism, drop me a PM.

The ANT+ application layer for specific devices is closed, but so little data is transferred, that it takes anywhere from seconds to a few hours to figure them out. You don't have to use ANT+ anyway, you could just make up your own protocol.

So if you used zigbee or something, what would that buy you other than losing access to all the ANT based devices that are now out there?

I think the point is that technology is growing at an exponential rate. Maybe you have to be an old fart like me to see it. My kids can't understand that we didn't have microwaves when I was a kid. That we had 4 tv stations. When we got a microwave and cable, I couldn't imagine that laptops and streaming video were on the way.

It wasn't that long ago that checking your temperature in your ear was new. Now, it's old, they just wave a wand over your forehead.

Today's business models are not set up to deal with this, certainly not older established businesses. Many companies have recently developed products that are obsolete by the time they get them out. This has become very difficult for companies that sell off of fads, as fads don't last nearly as long as they did in the past. You see it everywhere, from how short music careers are to failed soft drinks to facebook basically replacing myspace.

Those of us that got into the pc world from the beginning remember waiting forever for the next cpu, and it was not much faster than the last. Now, it seems they toss a new one out that is twice as fast every month.

Things are just moving so fast, we can't expect to base the future on past experience. That was my point with Kodak. They had no way of seeing that something new could replace them, it had never happened before. That took years to happen not that many years ago. Today, it would only take months.